The Recurrence Interval Difference of Power Load in HeavyLight Industries of China




Chi Zhang; Zhengning Pu; Jiasha Fu


The significant fluctuation of industrial electricity consumption has a high impact on power load, which makes the research on recurrence intervals between extreme events of theoretical and practical significance. The study uses a high-frequency data of heavy and light industries and employs recurrence interval analysis in different thresholds. We find that the reoccurrence interval of volatility can fit with the stretched exponential function and the probability density functions of recurrence intervals in various thresholds shows a scaling behavior. Then, the conditional probability density function and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis demonstrate the existence of short-range correlation, long-range correlation, and multifractal properties, respectively. We further construct a hazard function, introduce recurrence intervals into VaR calculation and establish a functional relationship between average recurrence interval and threshold. Following this result, we also shed light on policy discussion for multi-industrial electricity supply management.

Supported by the 111 Project B16040